Further to the premise that the author of this here article is a degenerate, we present for your entertainment (and, where legal, hopefully your benefit) a handicapping preview of the June rugby internationals. This week there is just one match, with the Springboks and Welsh coming to our American shores to meet in Washington, DC at venerable (if not decrepit and cavernous) RFK Stadium. Incidentally, I hear plenty of tickets are still available and this match threatens to be a financial disaster, but that’s fodder for another article.
As a reminder, here’s how our calls work:
Pass: don’t like either side enough to make a bet, or even advocate a lean.
Lean: points toward the direction I like, but I don’t like it enough to make a bet.
Like: now we’re in business, I’d make a bet on this.
Take off the rubber band: the line is way off, I’d have at it big time.
South Africa v. Wales, Washington DC (Springboks -7, Total N/A)
In what should be an atmosphere that rivals the liveliest of libraries, the Springboks and Welsh will tangle at RFK Stadium on Saturday in a test match that falls outside the international window.
Because this match is outside the window, both teams are starting second rate groups, with Wales missing most of their British and Irish Lions, and South Africa starting seven new Boks. Another debutant will be new Springboks coach Rassie Erasmus, who replaces the embattled Alistair Coetzee.
These two teams met in Cardiff in December 2017 in another match outside an international window. Wales won that match 24-22 in a marked probably best remembered for extremely spotty Springbok defense.
As you might imagine, it’s not terribly easy to handicap a match with so few regulars on a neutral field. Nevertheless, let’s give it a go.
The handicap here boils down to personnel and motivation, both of which favor the Boks in my view. They should have significant motivation to provide Erasmus with a victorious debut and otherwise punctuate the end of the Coetzee era. Wales, on the other hand, is merely warming up for a trip to Argentina next week.
The personnel taking the field for each team should also be fully motivated, if only to either seek to secure more playing time and/or spots on the roster going forward. That said, the group of personnel taking the pitch for the Boks just seems more talented.
In addition to having their regular flyhalf (Elton Jantjies), the Boks also will run out Curwin Bosch, Jesse Kriel, and Andre Esterhuizen amongst their backs, a pretty decent group. Robert Du Preez and the in-form Warrick Gelant are amongst the bench. The forward pack is led by captain Peter-Steph DuToit. All in all, a good group for being, at best, second choice.
For Wales, their group seems to evidence both a desire to experiment a bit (George North in the centers, for example) and a more significant talent drop-off from their top side to this sort of second group than South Africa will experience. Wales will start the likes of North, Gareth Anscombe and Ross Moriarty, but beyond that there are some relative no-names.
For whatever it’s worth given the second-choice sides, the teams’ recent form includes a second-place run for Wales in the Six Nations, with decidedly less positive results for the Boks, including a very narrow win last fall in France, and a 38-3 debacle of a loss at Ireland.
Nevertheless, the motivation should favor the Springboks here, though maybe not enough to fire.
Handicap: Lean Springboks
The Rugby Falcon Blog 